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Has Naxal situation now reached a Nation threatening level?

"Are India's Maoist rebels winning the war?" This is the title of the news item describing the situation after the Fridays train blast/accident. It is sad that the situation created by our self-serving government officials and political leaders over the years has reached this state. Years of neglect and misappropriation of funds added to numerous incidents of ill treatment of the tribal men and women has created this situation. As the BBC news describes, "Most live in abject poverty. The only visible signs of "development" I spotted during a trip to the area some years ago were cheap liquor shops."

In Lalgarh that rebel love to describe as 'liberated zone', the authority of the state is absent. Schools and medical centres have closed down because teachers and doctors are afraid to attend, and policemen are confined to the police stations fearing reprisals.
As per the news item in six years the number of districts affected has gone up from 55 to well over 200.

The strategy of "clearing, holding and developing" rebel-affected areas that did not work in Iraq and Afghanistan is found to be useless here also.
Augmentation of the local intelligence and operational capability is the only method that may succeed. Unfortunately that is currently the weakest link. There is no doubt that many states are not doing enough to take on the rebels, leading to a "centralisation" of the problem. It is dangerous to give an impression of confusion and lack of confidence by the Central government.

Naxal Problem is more serious than Terrorist attacks

( A B MEHTA)

The killing of 75 CRPF personnel and a local policeman in a Naxalite ambush in Dantewada clearly indicates that the Operation Green Hunt launched to flush out the Naxalites was not properly evaluated, planned, and carried out. The Army Chief recently said that the men were not fully trained to operate in jungle area. In any case it is doubtful that they were familiar with the area. It is not clear what was the aim of the movement of so many soldiers together and their returning following the same path. Who provided the intelligence to them, if any? These issues were recently discussed in a meeting of retired senior officers. The discussion was initiated by Shri R J Khurana.
The governments for the last over 60 years have created many Para-military forces but by and large ignored the need for increasing the number, capability, training, weapons and proper usage of the police force in the police stations. They are the one that are closest to the criminals. Even if the outside forces are required and sent, they have to get the input from these local policemen.

Today, it seems there is more threat from Naxalites than from terrorists. You can get intelligence and engage the terrorists but the naxalites not only ensure that they get all the information but they ensure through the element of fear that the forces get no such inputs. The terrorists may get some help from ‘sleepers’ but not from general public. They can be, in many cases, identified. But here there is no difference between an ordinary resident and a naxal.

Most of the weapons of the naxals are from looting the police armoury or through clandestine means from across the border. As per the figures given out by the Home department, over 200 districts are naxal affected and some 90 of them have no government administrative presence in large areas. Unless these districts are ‘liberated’ no long-term initiative can be taken to bring the residents in the main stream. Then the main task would be to ensure that the administration does not once again misgovern through corrupt practices, inefficiency, delays in attending to their problems, not initiating urgently needed developments and violating their freedom. These were the very causes of the development of Naxalism

 

UNKNOWN FACTS ABOUT YOUR MOBILE

1) Emergency number the Emergency Number worldwide for Mobile is 112. If you find yourself out of coverage area of your mobile network and there is an emergency, dial 112and the mobile will search any existing network to establish the emergency number for you, and interestingly …this number 112 can be dialed even while the keypad is locked. Try it out.

2) Locked the keys in the car? Your car has remote keys? This may come in handy someday. Good reason to own a cell phone: If you happen to lock your keys in the car and the spare keys are home, call someone on your cell phone. Hold your cell phone about a foot from your car door and have the other person at your home press the unlock button, holding it near the phone on their end. Your car will unlock.Saves someone from having to drive your keys to you.Distance is no object. You could be hundreds of miles away, and if you can reach someone who has the other “remote” for your car, you can unlock the doors (or the trunk).Editor’s Note: *It works fine! We tried it out and it unlocked our car over a cell phone!”

3) Hidden Battery power imagine your cell battery is very low, u r expecting an important call and u don’t have a charger. Nokia instrument comes with reserve battery. To activate, press the keys *3370#Your cell will restart with this reserve and the instrument will show 50% increase in battery. This reserve will get charged when u charge your cell next time.

4) How to disable a STOLEN mobile phone?
To check your Mobile phone’s serial number, key in the following digits on your phone:
* # 0 6 #
A 15 digit code will appear on the screen. This number is unique to your handset. Write it down and keep it somewhere safe. when your phone get stolen, you can phone your service provider and give them this code. They will then be able to block your handset so even if the thief changes the SIM card, your phone will be totally useless.

You probably won’t get your phone back, but at least you know that whoever stole it can’t use/sell it either.

5) Be careful while using your mobile phone
When you try to call someone through mobile phone,don’t put your mobile closer to your ears until the recipient answers. Because directly after dialling, the mobile phone would use it’s maximum signalling power, which is: 2 watts = 33dbi, Plz Be Careful, Message as received (Save your brain) Please use left ear while using cell (mobile), because if you use the right one it will affect brain directly. This is a true fact.

 

 

 

Measure: New tax slab for senior citizens
Taxable income (in Rs) Rate (%)
Up to 240,000 Nil
240,001 - 500,000 10
500,001 - 800,000 20
800,001 upwards 30*

Measures and imapcts
Measure: Uniform, concessional 5% duty on all medical appliances
Impact: Cheers to good health

 

 

Body Donation by Jyoti Basu

WORKSHOP ON POLICIES FOR ELDERS

Housing Board Order on Increased Lease Rent Cancelled

Swami Anubhav anand ji gave a discourse on 'VEDANT'

Aging World

Conservation of Lakes of bhopal

OUR CONTINUED DEMANDS FROM THE GOVERNMENT

Security Status in the neighbourhood

SEMINAR ON 'Are we vigilant about future terrorist attacks'

CITIZENS" CHARTER FOR FACING TERROR ATTACKS



BODY & ORGAN DONATION

FORUM NEWS

Maintenance of Parents Act

YOG NIDRA.

Article on Senior Citizens

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Help Age India in association with M P State Federation of Senior Citizens held a day long workshop today to "Review the Implementation of Stae Policy for Older People". Shri S K Saraswat, President of the Federation chaired the workshop. Shri S K Sharma State Mgr of HelpAge indiated the objective of the workshop. Shri K S Sharma, Retored Chief Secy and JUstice R D Shukla were distinguished guests. Approximately 100 senior citizens attended.

The prominant speakers who spoke on various topics were Shri Dinesh Mishra(Financial Security), Shri R K Shrivastava(Govt Initiatives and follow up action required), Shri Prem Babu Sharma, AIG (Protection of life and property), Dr Ohri and Dr Sharma (Health and Geriatics), Shri R S Shrivastava (Education and Research), Dr R P Mishra (Welfare) and Shri K K Bhatt (Role of NGOs).

Open session discussed the various points raised. The following points were prominent:

Concessions available and needed

Facilities provided and additinal required

Care of Poor and Sick, particularly in rural areas

Social Responsibilities: Role of Govt, Communities and Families.

Senior Citizens as a resource rather than a burden.

The elders had to be self disiplined and follow all instructions and precautions. The family members have to tune themselves to the need of the elders after assessing their requirements. Financial planning has to be second nature. With the number of senior citizens being nearly 9-10 crores, the Government at the centre and states have to give sufficient priority to their problems and utilisation.

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The Housing Board had issued notices to the residents of E/6 and E/7 demanding lease rent at a rate that was over 200 times the rate that was charged as per existing 30 year lease agreement. They had also asked for arrears based on this rate from the beginning with penalty and 10% handling charge. It may be noted that the lease rent increase in respct of E/1 to E/5 is approximately 6 times. The residents through Senior Citizens Forum had submitted an appeal against the order to the Arbitration Tribunal of Housing and Environment Department.

The tribunal while accepting the appeal, by there order No. F 19-51/2008/32-1 dated 1 Sep 09 has found the order against natural logic and not as per legal provisions. Hence it has cancelled the said order. The housing Board has been asked to reexamine the matter as per legal provisions and issue freash orders.

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The theme of his lectures was following the teachings of Vedanta in daily life. He said that while meditation gives us peace of mind, if it is followed during the rest of the day in frustrating hankering after desires then the meditation looses its impact. As one plays different roles during dreams, the current residence in this body is just one of the role. The 'self' is above all this.

Another problem with us is that most of the time we discuss only about past acts of omissions and commissions, usually of others. One must 100% live in the present. Do not allow it to become part of the past without contributing anything to our well being. The life is full of duality and that is the cause of our unhappiness. We tend to divide people in dual category as big-small, man-woman, rich-poor, high caste-low caste, learned-uneducated and so on. At every step we try to fit in one or the other. We should learn not to live 'as' body but 'through' body.

When we worship a deity in stone we fantasies about it to represent our God. Why can't we similarly fantasise about each human being as a replica of God? Why they must be divided into two classes as friend and enemy, nice person and bad person? Everyone is born a 'shudra' i.e. ignorant. Through study and living as prescribed in scriptures he can become Brahman, not otherwise. Similarly by learning the art of administration and soldiering he can become Kshatriya and becoming well versed in business he can become Vaishya. Otherwise everyone remains a Shudra. Similarly one becomes deserving for respect not just due to age, position or wealth, but only by being wise, compassionate, loving and without hatred. Self-discipline is the first step in the path to greatness.

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The latest report on Aging issued by the National Institute of Aging on 20 July 2009 indicates that the average age of the world's population is increasing at an unprecedented rate. The number of senior citizens worldwide (age 65 and older) has already crossed 50Crores. By 2040, that number will hit 130Crores. Thus, in just over 30 years, the proportion of older people will double from 7 percent to 14 percent of the total world population.

The most rapid increases in the older population are in the developing world. By 2040, developing countries like India are likely to be home to more than 100Crore people aged 65 and over, 76 percent of the projected world total. Within 10 years, for the first time in human history there will be more people aged 65 and older than children under 5 in the world. The 65-and-older population in China and India alone that numbered 16Crores in 2008, nearly one-third of the world's total will be accentuated in the coming decades as the absolute number climbs to 55Crores in 2040 (33 in China and 22 in India).

Older people, particularly in developing countries, still make substantial contributions to family well being through such activities as household maintenance and grandchild care. But off late many of them have to live alone and that also without sufficient financial security. Even the well to do and highly educated and experienced senior citizens find themselves treated more as a burden to the society. Very few among them voluntarily keep themselves busy in social service or developing a hobby or business they always wanted to do in their adult life but could not do. Hardly any avenues exist for using this vast resource in some way either by the state or central governments.

There have been some initiatives like Prevention of cruelty to parents Act, Old age pension, facility for mortgaging of house to get extra income by seniors, travel concessions etc but very few are fully aware of them and still fewer have any experience about the difficulties involved in taking advantage of them.

These numbers indicated in "An Aging World: 2008" should be treated like a 'Wake up Call' by the governments at the Centre as well as in states. There is a need for a statutory body to approve long-term plans, suggest legislations, attend to serious complaints and keep a watch on timely actions by authorities in public and private sectors.

(Published in Central Chronicle 24 Jul)

New Income Tax Code - a brief preview in Concessions Page

Conservation of Lakes of bhopal :

A seminar was held on 19th July under the aegis of Senior Citizens Forum, Bhopal to examine the status of the projects related to the lakes of Bhopal, its shortcomings and the active involvement of the citizens in future action plans. Shri K S Sharma, retired Chief Secretary, presided.

Dr Singh of EPCO provided the status of the Bhoj Wetland project indicating that Lake Conservation Authority is responsible for ensuring that adequate water from catchments areas, prohibition of sewage input, desilting and filtering activities are efficiently performed. Shri Raghuvanshi of Bhopal Municipal Corporation provided details of the sewage treatment, interconnectivity and filtering activities that form part of BMC's responsibility.

Most of the participants were critical of the delays in completing projects, improper design, wastage of funds, inaction on conservation of the lakes, leakages, corruption and involvement of many agencies without defining their accountability in the project implementation. They also said that while media did expose many such acts it did not follow up to put pressure on the agencies. The usage of the water of the lakes also has to be regulated, as the monsoon is unpredictable.

Shri K S Sharma supported the need for an independent statutory agency to oversee the project, find the shortcomings and act against the defaulters. In the mean while he appealed to the citizens to keep a watch while cooperating in doing their part and media to give publicity to the citizens' complaints to put pressure on the political class and bureaucracy. It should not happen that after spending thousands of crores we are worse than in 1995 when the project was taken up, as happened in the case of Ganga-Yamuna cleaning project.

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BHOPAL Corporation elections conducted. First election after 50% reservation for
women in all local bodies. Smt Krishna Gaur is the new Mayor.
NEW Master Plan for Bhopal circulated. Many objections raised by citizens, NGOs
and political parties. Revised plan is awaited.

• Educational Reforms with stress on making the common population really literate and proficient in their day to day tasks rather than just knowing how to sign instead of thumb impression
• Freedom from reservation and financial support for meritorious students for higher education not oriented towards degrees but to gain mastery of the chosen subject to carry out meaningful research and development.
• Administrative reforms not towards increasing posts but to make every staff member accountable. This accountability should increase as the person moves up in ladder. Years of service should be secondary beyond two initial promotions.
• Removal of those middle organisations and staff whose prime role is to take commissions and deprive the producer of his real income and result in unnecessary price rise. The minimum support price must reach the farmer IN FULL.
• Financial reforms in tune with globalisation without reducing the regulatory and in emergency role of the government agencies.
• Every village in India should be reachable by an all weather road. This should take priority or equal importance over essential trade and export related highways.
• Water and electricity should not be free but should be available everywhere and at the same time should have a cost that is reasonable. All forms of free supplies and thefts must be removed in all cases and not used to impose higher rate on the honest payers.
• Health Centres should not be just a building with a board. The doctors must be qualified for treating the diseases as appropriate for the region and season and should have all the necessary medicines in the right quantity. No wastage and no shortage should be the aim of health management.
• Good governance is not a party oriented necessity. Sheila Dixit, Modi and Nitish should be suitably adopted by ALL states. The central Funds should not be syphoned off for any thing that is not related to the project concerned. Names of the scheme do not matter, its implementation should be honest and efficient.
• Police and Judicial reforms cannot be just statements of successive governments. They are needed today. Police reforms should not be restricted to creating posts but making available the force for policing. Political intervention should be only in policy matters.CBI should be an independent agency, if possible defined by statutory provisions. It need not be uniformed force but a technologically self sufficient and authorised to do their job without intervention.
• Apart from terrorism, urgent and decisive action is needed against Naxals and other destructive elements. Civilian casualties and force casualties should be minimum and not due to careless and non-professional execution.

The Indian voters have given a chance to the Congress to not only regain its all India presence but also to put the country on the path of becoming a really strong welfare state.

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Security Status in the neighbourhood

-By Fred Burton and Scott Stewart (From Stratfor report)

When we wrote our Global Security and Intelligence Report last week on Baitullah Mehsud and the Manawan attack, we had no intention that the piece would be part of a series, but several developments over the past week have compelled us to once again write about Pakistan — and Mehsud and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in particular.

First, on April 4, eight paramilitary police were killed in a suicide bombing against their camp in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad. This attack was the second suicide bombing in Islamabad in less than two weeks, and followed closely on the heels of the March 23 attack on the headquarters of the Police Special Branch in Islamabad. After the April 4 attack, one of Baitullah Mehsud’s deputies, Hakimullah Mehsud (who, like Baitullah, is a member of the large Mehsud clan) contacted the press to claim credit for the attack and threatened that the group would carry out two suicide attacks per week in Pakistan. According to press reports, Hakimullah Mehsud said: “We have shown enough restraint, previously, we were striking once in three months, but from now onward we will go for at least two suicide attacks a week.”

On April 5, a suicide bomber attacked a Shiite mosque in Chakwal, a Punjab city located approximately 50 miles southeast of Islamabad. The attack killed at least 22 people and injured another 35. About 2,000 people had gathered at the mosque for Majlis Aza, an annual Shiite celebration. The bomber reportedly detonated himself when guards stopped him in the crowd at the mosque’s front gate.

Umar Farooq, the spokesman of the shadowy militant organization Fedayeen al-Islam (FI), called The Associated Press the same day to claim credit for the Chakwal attack. Farooq said his group staged the attack on the mosque as part of a “campaign against infidels.”

Oddly, on April 4, Baitullah Mehsud (or someone claiming to be him) called Reuters to claim responsibility for the April 3 shooting at a U.S. immigration center in Binghamton, New York. “They were my men,” the caller told the AP. “I gave them orders in reaction to U.S. drone attacks.” This claim was quickly discounted by eyewitness accounts of the shooting. According to surviving victims and other witnesses, the Binghamton shooting was carried out by a lone gunman, Jiverly Voong, who was a Vietnamese immigrant with no apparent links to Islam or the Taliban.

Background on Mehsud

Before plunging into the Binghamton claims and threats to attack the continental United States, let’s take a quick look at the man behind them, Baitullah Mehsud. As STRATFOR has previously discussed, Mehsud, who is only in his mid-30s, is a member of a new generation of militant leaders in Pakistan’s tribal badlands. As part of this new generation, Mehsud has endeavored to systematically remove or undermine the established tribal leaders in South Waziristan, usurping power and thus severing many of the tools of influence the Pakistani government held in the region. This process of killing off the old tribal leadership has been a significant contributing factor to what we have previously referred to as the “Talibanization” of Pakistan. In some ways, Mehsud personifies the struggle between al Qaeda and Pakistani intelligence organizations for influence and control of Afghan and Pakistani jihadists.

Since Mehsud operates largely outside of its control, the government of Pakistan has come to view Mehsud (and others like him) as a larger threat to Pakistan than the Afghan Taliban or the foreign jihadists — like al Qaeda — that Mehsud considers allies. Indeed, Pakistan has long tried to play up the importance of Mehsud to the United States and has been quite agitated that, until relatively recently, the United States was not targeting Mehsud’s TTP organization. When the United States finally did turn its sights on Meshud and his network, the TTP responded by launching attacks against the Pakistani authorities. Indeed, Hakimullah Mehsud said the group was stepping up the tempo of their attacks precisely because of the U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks directed against the TTP.

As we noted last week, although Baitullah Mehsud tells journalists that he is ready to be martyred, the UAV attacks against the TTP do pose a very real threat to him, and to the viability of his organization. The scope of this threat is made evident by their response to the attacks.

However, there is also another dynamic that threatens the TTP, and that is the efforts of the Pakistanis and the Americans to try to split the nationalist militants from those who are more internationally focused. That is, split those groups who want to carry out jihad to create a transnational caliphate (like al Qaeda) from those groups whose primary interest is establishing more localized control — like the Taliban in Afghanistan prior to the U.S. invasion. This approach is very similar to the approach coalition forces took in Iraq to separate al Qaeda in Iraq from the more nationalistic Sunni tribal militants in places like Anbar province.

While the United States is attempting to divide the jihadists on the Afghan side of the border, the Pakistanis are attempting to do the same among those in Pakistan. If the Pakistanis and Americans are able to split the more nationalist jihadists (like the Haqqani network) away from the more internationalist jihadists (like al Qaeda and the TTP) this could leave al Qaeda and the TTP isolated and far more vulnerable — which is why this process is seen as a threat by Mehsud and company. Indeed, divisions already exist with groups like the Haqqani network, which opposes attacks inside Pakistan.

Claims and Threats

Into this mix, Mehsud has injected threats to hit the United States and has made the strange claim of credit for the Binghamton shooting. Let’s examine the Binghamton claim first. We were quite surprised — and a bit embarrassed — to see this claim come out only a couple of days after we wrote in our security weekly that a prominent militant leader like Mehsud did not have to take credit for other people’s attacks, and that lying about such things would hurt his already well-established reputation.

Initially, we thought that perhaps the claim was some sort of psychological operation by the Pakistanis or Americans designed to make Mehsud look like a fool or a nut. However, when days passed and the TTP issued no retraction, it became apparent that Mehsud had actually made the claim for some reason. Also, despite his carefully crafted public image of never displaying his face, Mehsud is a media animal, who, as his frequent calls to Reuters, The Associated Press and Pakistani journalists testify, loves to see his name in print. With all the coverage surrounding the Binghamton claim, he undoubtedly was aware of the event. Had the claim been orchestrated by an intelligence agency seeking to discredit him, he would have quickly denied it — just as he quickly denied the claims that he was behind the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

As to the threat to attack the United States, one must use a two-step test: 1) Does the actor behind the threat possess the capability to carry out the threatened action? and 2) Does the actor possess the intent to do so? When we look at the capabilities of the TTP, the group has not demonstrated the ability to operate as a transnational organization. We have seen instances of grassroots-type jihadists elsewhere who were allegedly trained at TTP camps, but providing paramilitary training to grassroots jihadists is different from actually training and dispatching operatives to conduct attacks on your behalf.

The technical skills and tradecraft required to conduct an act of terrorism are very different from those needed to be an insurgent, and are very different from the subjects taught in basic military — or paramilitary — training. Even if the grassroots operatives are trained in some of the more technical skills of terrorism such as bomb-making, there are still important tradecraft skills that must be acquired and honed before a person can become a successful transnational militant capable of conducting acts of terrorism in a hostile environment. We define terrorist tradecraft as the set of subtle skills needed to maintain secrecy and operate within a hostile environment. These skills are foundational to the success of both the individual jihadist and his network anywhere, but they are acutely critical while conducting transnational operations.

Merely being able to travel internationally with ease is something many guerrilla fighters cannot do. More refined tasks, such as conducting preoperational surveillance in a major metropolitan area, maintaining secure communications, establishing cover for status and cover for action while undertaking operational activity, or acquiring weapons without arousing unwanted attention, are simply things not taught to most guerrilla fighters, and they are skills that require a great deal of practical training in order to master.

So far, the TTP has shown an ability to successfully operate inside Pakistan and Afghanistan, but its operations to date have been somewhat rudimentary (like the Marawan attack) and have not shown an advanced degree of nuance or sophistication. Likewise, the group has not demonstrated the ability to train and dispatch operatives to a major western city like New York or London in order to conduct an attack. (Al Qaeda has demonstrated this ability but the TTP has not.) When all is said and done, employing an improvised explosive device manufactured at a camp in Pakistan against a target in Pakistan is a far cry from employing it against a target in London.

Now, with regard to the second step of the test — intent. Is the TTP really planning to strike Washington, D.C., New York and London? This is a question that almost every major intelligence and law enforcement agency in the West began to focus on following Mehsud’s public statements in a January 2008 interview with Al Jazeera that he wanted to attack the United States and the United Kingdom. “We pray to God to give us the ability to destroy the White House, New York and London,” Mehsud said during the interview. “And we have trust in God. Very soon, we will be witnessing jihad’s miracles.”

But does such a public statement — or even his March 31 statement in which he threatened strikes against Washington, D.C. in response to U.S. UAV attacks — really translate into intent? This is where the intent side of the equation gets very fuzzy. Merely stating that one is going to do something is not necessarily a clear indication that there is real intent to do so.

Indeed, there is a good argument to be made that if Mehsud truly intended to strike the United States or United Kingdom he would remain silent about his aspirations in order to help ensure the operational security of any operatives he has dispatched abroad to conduct such strikes. Certainly, Osama bin Laden did openly declare war against the United States in August 1996 and again in February 1998, but he never mentioned specific targets in those declarations and was certainly far more circumspect with his statements as his operatives got closer to actually executing attacks. In fact, bin Laden even went so far as to deny responsibility for many of the early al Qaeda attacks and initially denied responsibility for the 9/11 attacks.

Calculations

Mehsud is neither stupid nor crazy. Such people do not become major militant leaders at age 35 in the violent world of Pakistan’s tribal areas. He is clearly rational and quite Machiavellian. What he is doing, therefore, likely has some rational explanation beyond the fact that he likes to hear his name mentioned by the media. While the threats against the United States and United Kingdom may be explained away under the “media debutante” rationale, unless Mehsud made a terrible miscalculation in taking credit for the Binghamton shooting, there must be some other overriding reason to risk damaging his reputation as a militant leader with a specious claim.

As seen by the U.S. reaction to the 9/11 attacks, any successful large-scale attack on American soil could have dire consequences for Mehsud. Such a strike could, at the very least, serve to steel U.S. resolve to stay in Afghanistan, or it could motivate the United States to dramatically increase its focus on totally destroying the TTP. Additionally, if Mehsud is truly intent on hitting the United States or United Kingdom, we should see him begin to hit American and British targets within his current operational sphere, i.e., within Pakistan, before graduating to American and British targets overseas.

There is another possibility. Perhaps Mehsud does not possess the intent to attack Washington, New York or London. Maybe his threats — along with the Binghamton claim — are intended to scuttle the emerging U.S. strategy of dealing with factions of the Taliban in an effort to divide them and isolate the more radical elements.

If Mehsud does fear such a strategy — and he has reason to, following its successes in Iraq — it is possible that his recent antics are an effort to influence public perception inside the United States regarding the Taliban. As the United States reaches out to factions of the Afghan Taliban in an attempt to split them from al Qaeda, et al., Mehsud threatens the United States and attempts to link the Pakistani Taliban to a shooting in Binghamton, New York. Even though the link to the shooting was quickly and officially discounted, it is a safe bet that it will live on for a long time as an urban legend or rumor, especially among the more conspiracy-minded. Such perceptions are going to make the strategy of negotiating with any Taliban (Afghan or Pakistani) appear to be less tenable for many Americans.

At the same time, Mehsud could be using his rhetoric in an attempt to steer the more nationalist jihadists in Pakistan and Afghanistan toward his more transnational agenda. In any case, Mehsud’s efforts to shape opinion at home or abroad could explain his recent posturing, however bogus or brash it might be.

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The country has faced many terror attacks in the past. The recent attack in Mumbai indicated that the terrorists are very well trained and supported by agencies from both inside and outside our country. The sole aim of these people is to create a chaos and maximum destruction. They are ready to sacrifice their life to kill innocent people.

Centre and State Governments have the duty to give first priority to protecting the life and property of its citizens apart from effectively administering the country. Repeated terror attacks have shown that our police, who are the first to face the terrorists, are not able to be very effective due to their lack of training and equipment. Another reason for failure is that the common citizen remains unconcerned about his duties and rights in such a situation. Most of us tend to see, as clearly demonstrated in Mumbai, such attacks as a "Tamasha".

The Senior Citizens Forum arranged a Seminar to work out a plan for the involvement and training of the citizens with the help of Police and other concerned Departments. Eminent persons like Justice Shukla, Shri K S Sharma, Shri K S Dhillon, Shri H M Joshi, GajrajBhandari of Patrika Samachar and Smt Shakuntala Sharma were the panelists for the seminar. Shri S K Raut, our DGP, also participated. Shri O N Shrivastava, retired Governor of Nagaland and Meghalaya delivered the Keynote address.

The seminar adopted the following Citizens CHarter:

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• Popular Markets to be made Secure (Police).
• FIRST AID training for all (CMO).
• Volunteer Community Wardens (Corporation).
• Sr Citizens to be briefed by local Police about Security set up (Media?).
• Regular Publicity on how to recognize and warn about possible terrorists activity (Police).
• Practice Emergency plans often.
• Get servants and Tenants verified.
• Discuss with neighbours any unusual activity in the society.
• Do not allow Rumour Mongering.
• Act quickly without arguing with police in case of attack.
• Do not have or provide unauthorized water or Electricity Connection.
• Do not discriminate on the basis of religion, caste or language.
• Campaign for peaceful agitations. Do not damage public property.
• Depoliticise Police and release them for community policing.

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Senior Citizens Forum, whose mission is to involve the members in socially relevant projects, took note of the shortage of organs for treating patients and the extent to which unscrupulous elements took advantage of it to cheat people. Consequently we conducted on 10th February 2008 an organ and Body Donation Camp with the support of Dr S L Patidar and his staff. 36 persons offered to donate organs/full body and completed the required formalities. Shri Babulal Gaur, Ex-Chief Minister and current Urban Development Minister was the chief guest who honoured each volunteer for their praiseworthy decision.

A second camp was held on 23rd March. In this camp 41 more psersons came forward. An important aspect was the predominance of women in this.

We have approached the Union Health Minister and the Chief Minister of MP to make efficient arrangement for setting up of 'ORGAN BANKS' so that the donated organs become available to the needy in proper condition and without delay. We have also asked for remoing EYE DONATION from the Transplant Act.

Our programme has been brought to the notice of the Ministry of Health and social welfare, Government of India by the good offices of the Governor who showed great interest in it and even volunteered to give away the declaration forms to the Dean of Gandhi Medical College Bhopal.

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Members of the Forum and a number of poor elders living in Jhuggi-Jhopadies assembled at a RALLY to demand the setting up of a Senior Citizens Commission in the state to take effective steps to improve the living conditions of disadvantaged elders.

These are in the area of proper publicity of the Government concessions, ensuring the distribution of Old Age Pensions to 100% poor elders, checking the possible divertion of such pensions by middlemen and relatives, proper healthcare at their doorstep, effective control of offences against them by members of their family as well as others, enhancement of pension and other grants to a more realistic level, provision of elder-comfortable infrastructure facilities by Municipal committee and public agencies like Banks/Railways/Bus Transporters/Hospitals/Post offices and so on.

Government was also requested to effectively utilise the expertise of elders in solving the numerous day to day problems of the society in an organised manner. The rally also demanded cancellation of exhorbitant increase in taxes and charges like lease rent, property tax, water tax etc particularly for those elder residents who are having 25 or more years old LIG and MIG houses.

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The Senior Citizens Forum has come out with a Quarterly Journal " GREY HAIR" to propogate the Forum activities and provide useful information to members as well as other senior citizens. The Journal would also have articles by both members as well as non-members on important topics. We have priced the Journal at Rs 15 with an yearly subscription of Rs 50. This would partly meet the expences. Subscription may be sent by MO or given personally to Gp Capt A B Mehta, Vice President at MIG-282, E/7, Bhopal (462016). Enquiries for multiple copies can be sent through

e-mail at abmehtabhopal@indiatimes.com

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For the past several years, we have published an annual forecast for al Qaeda and the jihadist movement. Since the January 2006 forecast, we have focused heavily on the devolution of jihadism from a phenomenon focused primarily on al Qaeda the group to one based primarily on al Qaeda the movement. Last year, we argued that al Qaeda was struggling to remain relevant and that al Qaeda prime had been marginalized in the physical battlefield. This marginalization of al Qaeda prime had caused that group to forfeit its position at the vanguard of the physical jihad, though it remained deeply invol ved in the leadership of the ideological battle.

As a quick reminder, Stratfor views what most people refer to as "al Qaeda" as a global jihadist network rather than a monolithic entity. This network consists of three distinct entities. The first is a core vanguard, which we frequently refer to as al Qaeda prime, comprising Osama bin Laden and his trusted associates. The second is composed of al Qaeda franchise groups such as al Qaeda in Iraq, and the third comprises the grassroots jihadist movement inspired by al Qaeda prime and the franchise groups.

As indicated by the title of this forecast, we believe that the trends we have discussed in previous years will continue, and that al Qaeda prime has become marginalized on the physical battlefield to the extent that we have not even mentioned their name in the title. The regional jihadist franchises and grassroots operatives pose a much more significant threat in terms of security concerns, though it is important to note that those concerns will remain tactical and not rise to the level of a strategic threat. In our view, the sort of strategic challenge that al Qaeda prime posed with the 9/11 attacks simply cannot be replicated without a major change in geopolitical alignments - a change we do not anticipate in 2009.

2008 in Review

Before diving into our forecast for the coming year, let's take a quick look back at what we said would happen in 2008 and see what we got right and what we did not.

What we got right:

Al Qaeda core focused on the ideological battle. Another year has passed without a physical attack by the al Qaeda core. As we noted last October, al Qaeda spent a tremendous amount of effort in 2008 fighting the ideological battle. The core leadership still appears to be very intent on countering the thoughts presented in a book written in 2007 by Sayyed Imam al-Sharif, also known as Dr. Fadl, an imprisoned Egyptian radical and a founder (with Ayman al-Zawahiri) of Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Al-Sharif's book is seen as such a threat because he provides theological arguments that counter many of the core teachings used by al Qaeda to justify jihadism. On Dec. 13, an 85-page treatise by one of al Qaeda's leading religious authorities, Abu-Yahya al-Libi, was released to jihadist Web sites in the latest of al Qaeda's many efforts to counter Dr. Fadl's arguments.

Pakistan will be important as a potential flashpoint. Eight days after we wrote this, former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated. Since then, Pakistan has become the focal point on the physical battlefield.

The November 2007 addition of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) to the global jihadist network will not pose a serious threat to the Libyan regime. The Libyans have deftly used a combination of carrots and sticks to divide and control the LIFG.

Jihadists will kill more people with explosives and firearms than with chemical, biological or radiological weapons. We saw no jihadist attacks using WMD in 2008.

What we got mostly right:

The Algerian jihadist franchise, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), will be hard-pressed in 2008, but not eliminated. AQIM succeeded in launching a large number of attacks in the first eight months of 2008, killing as many people as it did in all of 2007. But since then, the Algerian government has been making progress, and the jihadist group has only conducted two attacks since August 2008. The Algerians also are working closely with neighboring countries to combat AQIM, and the group is definitely feeling the heat. On Dec. 23, 2008, the Algerian government reportedly rejected a truce offered by AQIM leader Yahia Djouadi. Djouadi offered that al Qaeda would cease attacks on foreigners operating in oil fields in Algeria and Mauritania if the Algerian security service would cease targeting al Qaeda members in the Sahel region. The group is still alive, and government pressure appears to have affected its operational ability in recent months, but it di d take a bit longer than we anticipated for the pressure to make a difference.

Syria will use Fatah al-Islam as a destabilizing force in Lebanon. We had intelligence last year suggesting that the Syrians were going to press the use of their jihadist proxies in Lebanon - specifically Fatah al-Islam. We saw a bit of this type of activity in late May, but not as much as anticipated. By November, Syria actually decided to cut ties with Fatah al-Islam.

Jihadist operatives outside war zones will focus on soft targets. Major terrorist strikes in Islamabad and New Delhi were conducted against hotels, soft targets Stratfor has focused on as vulnerable for many years now. Other attacks in India focused on markets and other public places. While most of the attacks against hard targets came in war zones like Iraq and Afghanistan, there were a few attacks against hard targets in places like Pakistan, Yemen and Turkey. Granted, the Sanaa and Istanbul attacks were unsuccessful, but they were attacks against hard targets nonetheless.

What we missed:

The jihadist franchises in Yemen resurged, and the al-Shabab in Somalia found success. While we quickly picked up on these trends in April and May respectively (and beat most others to the punch with some very good analysis on these topics), we clearly did not predict them in December 2007. We knew that the influx of fighters from Iraq was going to impact countries in the region, but we didn't specifically focus on Yemen and Somalia.

The Year Ahead

We anticipate that we will see the United States continue its campaign of decapitation strikes against al Qaeda leadership. While this campaign has not managed to get bin Laden or al-Zawahiri, it has proved quite successful at causing the al Qaeda apex leadership to lie low and become marginalized from the physical jihad. The campaign also has killed a long list of key al Qaeda operational commanders and trainers. As noted above, we believe the core leadership is very concerned about the ideological battle being waged against it - the only real way the theology of jihadism can be defeated - and will continue to focus their efforts on that battlespace.

As long as the ideology of jihadism survives (it has been around since the late 1980s), the jihadists' war against the world will continue. It will continue to oscillate between periods of high and low intensity. In the coming year, we believe the bulk of physical attacks will continue to be conducted by regional jihadist franchise groups, and to a lesser extent by grassroots jihadists.

With the lack of regional franchises in North America, we do not see a strategic threat to the United States. However, as seen by the recent convictions in the Fort Dix plot trial, or even in the late October case where a U.S. citizen apparently committed a suicide bombing on behalf of al-Shabab in Somalia, the threat of simple attacks against soft targets in the United States remains. We were again surprised that no jihadist attacks occurred in the United States in 2008. Given the vulnerabilities that exist in an open society and the ease of attack, we cannot rule out an attack in 2009.

In Europe, where AQIM and other jihadist franchises have a greater presence and infrastructure, there is a greater threat that these franchises will commit sophisticated attacks. It must be recognized, though, that they will have a far harder time acquiring weapons and explosives to conduct such attacks in the United Kingdom or France than they would in Algeria or Pakistan. Because of this, we anticipate that they will continue to focus on soft targets in Europe. Due to differences between the Muslim communities in the United States and Europe, the grassroots operatives have been more active in Europe than they are in the United States. The May 22, 2008, attempted bombing at the Giraffe Cafe by a Muslim convert in Exeter serves as a good reminder of this.

Jihadist Franchises

After failing last year to predict the resurgence of the jihadist franchises in Yemen and Somalia, we will be keeping a sharp eye on both for 2009. Somalia continues to be a basket case of a country, and the instability there is providing an opportunity for al-Shabab to flourish. There is currently an attempt under way to bring stability to Somalia, but we anticipate that it will not succeed, due to the militant factionalism in the country. The only thing working against al-Shabab and their jihadist brethren is that the Somalian jihadists appear to be as fractious as the rest of the country; al-Shabab is itself a splinter of the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC), which ruled Somalia briefly before the Ethiopian invasion in 2006. There are currently as many as four different jihadist factions fighting one anot her for control over various areas of Somalia - in addition to fighting foreign troops and the interim government.

In Yemen, things have been eerily quiet since the Sept. 17 attack against the U.S. Embassy in Sanaa and the government campaign to go after the group behind that attack. Six gunmen were killed in the attack itself, and the Yemenis have arrested numerous others whom they claim were involved in planning the attack. The Yemenis also killed or captured several significant jihadists prior to the September attack. But given the large number of Yemenis involved in the fighting in Iraq, the number of Saudi militants who have traveled to Yemen due to pressure at home, and the Salafist-jihadist influence within Yemen's security and intelligence apparatus, it will be possible for the two jihadist franchises in Yemen to recover if the Yemenis give them breathing space.

Meanwhile, though Iraq is far calmer than it was a few years back, a resurgence in jihadist activity is possible. One of the keys to calming down the many jihadist groups in Iraq was the formation of the Awakening Councils, which are made up of many Sunni former Baathist (and some jihadist) militants placed on the U.S. payroll. With the changes in Iraq, responsibility for these Awakening Councils has been passed to the Iraqi government. If the Shiite-dominated government decides not to pay the councils, many of the militants-turned-security officers might return to their old ways - especially if the pay from jihadist groups is right. Intelligence reports indicate that Baghdad plans to pay only a fraction of the approximately 100,000 men currently serving in the Awakening Councils. The Iraqi central government apparently plans to offer the bulk of them civilian jobs or job training, but we are skeptical that this will work.

Elsewhere, Pakistan is once again the critical location for the jihadists. Not only is Pakistan the home of the al Qaeda core leadership as its pursues its ideological war, it also is home to a number of jihadist groups, from the Afghan Taliban and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan in the northwest to Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed in the northeast, among several others. The coming year might prove to be pivotal in global efforts against the jihadists in Pakistan. Pakistan already is a country in crisis, and in some ways it is hard to imagine it getting much worse. But if Pakistan continues to destabilize, it could very well turn into a failed country (albeit a failed country with a nuclear arsenal). Before Pakistan becomes a failed state, there are a number of precursor stages it probably will pass through. The most immed iate stage would entail the fall of most of the North-West Frontier Province to the jihadists, something that could happen this year.

This type of anarchy in Pakistan could give the jihadists an opportunity to exert control in a way similar to what they have done in places like Afghanistan and Somalia (and already in the Pakistani badlands along the Afghan border.) If, on the other hand, Pakistan is somehow able to hold on, re-establish control over its territory and its rogue intelligence agency and begin to cooperate with the United States and other countries fighting the jihadists, such a development could deal a terrible blow to the aspirations of the jihadists on both the physical and ideological battlefields. Given the number of plots linked to Pakistan in recent years, including the Nov. 26 Mumbai attack and almost every significant plot since 9/11, all eyes will be watching Pakistan carefully.

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• Provide appropriate mechanism for the above purpose.
• Provide better medical facilities to senior citizens.
• Institutionalise a suitable mechanism for the protection of life and property of older persons.
• Set up Old Age Homes in every district.

Senior citizen including parent( includes father, mother biological or step) who is

unable to maintain himself from his own earning or out of the property owned by him has to be necessarily maintained by his children(includes son daughter, grandson and grand daughter) and in their absence by relatives who are likely to inherit the property of such a senior citizen. In case of any dispute the senior citizen can approach a tribunal set up by the State Governments for this purpose in each sub-division. This tribunal will have the powers of a Civil Court. Appeals can be heard by an Appellate tribunal presided by the District Magistrate.

In respect of medical facilities, the State Governments shall ensure that,-

• Govt hospitals or Govt funded hospitals shall provide beds for all senior citizens
• Separate queues be arranged for them
• Facilities for the treatment of chronic/terminal/degenerative illnesses to be provided
• Research in respect of chronic elderly illnesses and ageing to be encouraged

The State Governments should establish and maintain old age homes as per need,

beginning with at least one in each district. Government staff, including the police and judicial officers should be given periodic sensitization and awareness training. They would prescribe comprehensive action plan for providing protection of life and property of senior citizens. This would include declaration of void any transfer of property from senior citizens to his children or relative if he or she is found guilty of not maintaining them.

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Yog Nidra is the supreme relaxing and meditative technique. It is in fact NOt a Nidra or Sleep. One has to remain alert all the time chanting 'OM'. He has to repeat his objective for life after he has relaxed all parts of his body by being aware of these parts and making them free from stress(Shavasan).

This process results in regular full breathing i.e. observing the breath right upto stomach cavity. Thereafter one brings about harmony between the Mind and the Thought process. The emotional stress, ignorance and confusionn of mind are gradually removed. Intuitive knowledge of the 'art of living' is thus obtained.

Experiencing this bliss within he repeats his 'sankalpa' about his life's purpose and 'wakes up' from Yog Nidra and slowly becomes aware of outside chanting 'OM'.

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"When we were young, we used to refer to older people as 'Retired' persons or 'Pensioners'. Many cities are even today called as Pensioners' paradise. Then in the last ten years or so, one started hearing and reading about Senior Citizens. Whenever we asked some senior citizens about the meaning of this term, they felt it was just a new term and nothing more. They admitted that it entitled them to receive some concessions from the Government.

Today I would like to suggest to them that this change of terminology could represent a change in perspective. For me, it is important to regard them as Citizens, who have full rights to participate in the affairs of the society and the community. That they have much more experience than the rest of the population makes them senior. The concessions are there to enable them to participate actively in the affairs of the society to which they belong.

I have seen some patterns in the way Senior Citizens take part in the outside world.

First are those who engage in pleasurable pursuits in the belief that they worked hard all their life and now was the time to 'enjoy' life. Their interactions remain limited to a circle of close friends and family and activities generally include, travel, playing cards, dinner parties.

Second is the category who turn to spiritual pursuits of attending religious discourses, meditation camps and reading of scriptures and the like. They meet fellow-devotees and withdraw from an interest in worldly matters, except those of the family and close relations.

Third, I have seen many senior citizens not giving up the occupations that kept them engaged in earlier life. They continue in the same activity of professional practice or business or similar avocation. I have also seen their interest slowly dwindle, but the engagements continue so that they can pass time, meet people and feel wanted. They receive respect from others as a matter of routine, but slowly the distance increases and they acquire ceremonial importance.

Fourth is the category of senior citizens, who move out of their known circles and engage in activities that interest them and are meaningful to them. In their working life, these activities could have remained peripheral or mere hobbies. They take interest in public issues, social service or the arts and are meeting people outside their ambit and possibly of all ages. They join or form voluntary organizations of different types. They put forth their views on different fora of citizens.

Obviously these patterns can coexist in the same person, but there seems to be usually one dominant pattern. A spiritually oriented person may occasionally enjoy himself, but that is not his primary mode of living.

These engagements lead to interactions with different kinds of persons, such as immediate family, near relatives, close friends, old acquaintances and new contacts. These interactions get converted into relationships, when there is emotional investment from both sides. It may not call for repeated contacts. Over time, the relationships go through turns and twists, if the Senior citizens and those around them do not recognize changes in their roles. A failure to recognize change can lead to growing distance in relationships, which can be misread as indifference. The senior citizens may withdraw into a shell or form own groups, which may further reinforce their distancing from others.

At the same time, it is quite possible that they work with the new elements in their

situation and strike new relationships. Senior Citizens who meet a wider cross-section of people are more likely to have healthy relationships than those who move in a closed circle. They are likely to look at life from many different angles and perspectives and not get frozen in certain views, typical of certain age groups or become predictable with familiarity. From this point of view, Senior Citizens forming their own support groups may have a limited purpose. They are more likely to talk as senior persons than as senior citizens. So an activity that brings the young, the middle-aged and the seniors together is much better than a group dedicated only to the interests of the senior citizens, from the point of view of building relationships.

There are two areas, among many others, in contemporary society that need attention and can benefit from the involvement of senior citizens.

First, the working population in a society is becoming increasingly one-dimensional in their orientation towards their career and work. They have less time to devote to issues of civic concerns outside their area of work. The general tendency is to dissociate from public policy-making, issues of governance and administration, yet to keep decrying falling standards and rising corruption. As a result, the elected representatives and the public administration get less and less accountable to people. I have seen Senior Citizens taking up these public issues and putting forth their views, ideas and suggestions. Many of them participate in civic campaigns. They experience a range of emotions from frustration to fulfillment in the process. They also discover new problems of working together with different kind of people.

The second area is the growing distancing in human relationships at all levels. A few kind words are at a premium in the world today. The young are caught up with their careers, the middle-aged with position and prestige and everyone with competition and resultant insecurity. Technology has advanced our communication and retarded normal conversations. The senior citizens can extend a hand of support, words of solace and the healing touch to the restless souls around them. I have seen many hesitate on account of a feeling that they may not be welcome. Yes, advice, especially if unsolicited, is not usually welcome, but a heart-to-heart talk is. If the senior citizens can resist the temptation to give out advice, they would find many willing ears.

The critical relationships are those with the younger members of the family. I find that where both the senior and the younger members have their own separate spheres of freedom and mutual respect, the relationships seem to go on well. Then they can choose to come together and enjoy each other's company. If coming together is not out of choice but compulsion, relationships are likely to develop strains sooner than later. Creating one's own sphere of freedom seems to me to be crucial for the senior citizens.

Some senior citizens use this time of their life for rediscovering their self that lay hidden beneath all the roles they chose to play through the working life. I have seen many a personal card of senior citizens mentioning their last designation with a 'retd' in paranthesis. This to me suggests that the person is still unwilling to psychologically give up the organizational role. That role gave him a sense of meaning, status and identity. Now the role is gone, but the person still clings to it, not recognizing the reality in and outside him. Rediscovering the self is to act from the truest feelings and the best thoughts that arise in you. It can take away all the pretensions, clear the cobwebs in the mind and wash out all impurities from your vision. There is no better time for it than now. Then it is possible to connect with people as people, talk as a person to another person and become human.

When we humanize ourselves in action, we create a field for relationships to grow. When we live every moment in being true to ourselves, there is no need for permanent solutions. Then there is a possibility of savouring every moment of relatedness and not strive for permanent relationships. Senior citizens have a great opportunity of humanizing themselves and others, because they do not carry the usual burdens of living."

 

 

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